The Sir's Picks

AI-Powered Sports Betting Intelligence

How To Use The Sir's Picks

Your guide to understanding and using our AI-powered betting intelligence

🚀 Quick Start

  1. 1. Browse picks on the home page
  2. 2. Use filters to find your preferred sports and markets
  3. 3. Check the confidence level (High/Medium/Lean)
  4. 4. Review the edge percentage and fair odds
  5. 5. Place your bet at the recommended sportsbook

📂 Understanding the Tabs

All Games

Shows every prediction from our model, including low-confidence picks. Great for research and comparison.

Smart Picks

Filtered value plays that pass our quality gate (≥5% edge, ≥$5 stake, Lean+ confidence). These are our recommended plays.

Player Props

Specialized predictions for player performance markets (points, yards, assists, etc.). Updated daily at 6am PT.

📊 Understanding the Metrics

Confidence Levels

HIGH
8%+ edge • Strong model prediction
MEDIUM
5-8% edge • Good model prediction
LEAN
2-5% edge • Slight edge, use caution

Key Terms

Edge:
Model's calculated advantage over the sportsbook. Positive = favorable bet.
Fair Odds:
What the odds should be according to our model's probability assessment.
Best Book:
Sportsbook offering the best odds for this specific bet.
Stake:
Kelly Criterion-based recommended bet size from your bankroll.

💱 Odds Formats

We support three odds formats. Select your preference from the dropdown on the main page:

American (Default)
+150 or -200
Most common in US sportsbooks
Decimal
2.50 or 1.50
Common in Europe and Australia
Fractional
3/2 or 1/2
Traditional UK format

✅ Best Practices

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Focus on Smart Picks: These pass our quality gate and have the best risk/reward profile.
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Use Kelly Staking: Follow the recommended stake sizes based on your bankroll.
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Shop for Lines: Use the "Best Book" recommendation to get the most favorable odds.
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Track Your Bets: Keep a record to measure your actual performance against the model.
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Be Patient: Edge compounds over time. Don't expect to win every bet.

⚠️ What to Avoid

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Don't chase losses: Stick to your bankroll management strategy.
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Don't bet more than recommended: The Kelly stakes are calculated for a reason.
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Don't ignore confidence levels: Lean picks have lower conviction for a reason.
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Don't bet with emotions: Trust the data, not your gut or team loyalty.

❓ Need Help?

Have questions or feedback? We're here to help:

• Check the Guide button on the main page for quick reference
• Read our About page for technical details
• Updates happen automatically every 3 hours